China’s long-term efforts to strengthen energy security have built a significant strategic buffer, allowing the world’s largest crude oil importer to withstand potential supply disruptions from the Middle East.
Analysts say China’s strategic petroleum reserves and diversified energy supply routes could sustain the country’s oil demand for months even in a worst-case scenario involving a complete disruption of Middle Eastern crude shipments.
Rising geopolitical tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran have raised concerns over the stability of the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime chokepoint through which roughly 20 percent of global oil supplies pass.
Despite these risks, China has accumulated substantial reserves over the past two decades. According to estimates cited by the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, China’s strategic petroleum reserve is estimated at around 1.4 billion barrels, or roughly 190 million metric tons.
Energy researcher Erica Downs said such reserves could support China’s oil needs for about six months if supplies from the Middle East were completely interrupted.
“China has spent the past 20 years steadily building and filling these reserves precisely to prepare for moments like this,” Downs said.
China has also continued increasing crude purchases in recent months. Data from the General Administration of Customs of China shows that crude imports in January and February rose 16 percent year-on-year to 96.9 million metric tons, further strengthening stockpiles during a period of heightened global volatility.
The country imported a total of 578 million metric tons of crude oil in 2025, with its main suppliers including Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
Beyond stockpiles, analysts note that China’s broader energy transition is gradually reducing structural dependence on oil.
A report by OCBC Bank said the Chinese economy has become more resilient to oil price volatility due to rapid adoption of electric vehicles, expanded coal-to-chemicals production and a power generation system that relies relatively little on oil.
Although China still imports more than 70 percent of its crude oil, petroleum accounted for only about 18 percent of the country’s total energy consumption in 2024.
Energy experts also point to the importance of diversified supply routes. In addition to maritime shipments, China has developed extensive pipeline networks linking it with neighboring energy producers.
Pipelines from Russia and Kazakhstan provide land-based crude supplies that are not exposed to maritime chokepoints or naval tensions in the Middle East.
Lu Ruquan, president of the Economics and Technology Research Institute at China National Petroleum Corporation, said this combination of strategic reserves, diversified supply sources and alternative transport routes forms a strong “resilience shield” for China’s energy system.
While a prolonged disruption in Middle Eastern shipping lanes could still affect global markets and prices, Lu said China’s oil supply stability would likely remain intact.
“Even under extreme scenarios, China’s energy framework provides a strong buffer against major supply shocks,” he said.