Editor’s Note: As China launches its 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30), policymakers are strengthening coordination between the “Export to China” and “Shopping in China” campaigns. The effort signals a clear commitment to expanding imports while promoting high-quality consumption. To explore what this means for global business, we invited executives from multinational corporations to share their perspectives on the opportunities in China’s vast market, the role of their China operations in global strategy, and their outlook for the years ahead.
Q1 China’s GDP grew 5 percent in 2025, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan ($20.29 trillion). For 2026, the government targets growth of between 4.5 percent and 5 percent, with a planned deficit ratio of around 4 percent. How do you assess the credibility and policies backing this target? Amid moderating global demand, what does China’s relative growth certainty mean for your company’s global capital allocation, earnings outlook and investor expectations? Does the combination of proactive fiscal policies and accommodative monetary measures reinforce your confidence in sustaining or expanding operations in China?
HU: China’s growth target of 4.5 percent to 5 percent reflects a pragmatic balance between stabilizing economic momentum and allowing space for structural reforms and economic rebalancing. The decision to set the fiscal deficit ratio at around 4 percent also sends a clear signal of a proactive policy stance, given that China’s on-budget deficit has historically been around 3 percent or lower. Over the past three decades, UBS has witnessed and supported many important stages of China’s economic transformation as one of the earliest international financial institutions operating in the country. Along the way, we’ve grown with China’s capital market and have built one of the most established multi-entity platforms among foreign peers with multiple licenses.
WATKINS: China has set its economic growth target at between 4.5 percent and 5 percent for this year, marking the first time in seven years that a range has been adopted rather than a fixed figure. This shift reflects a more flexible policy approach, enabling adjustments amid a transition toward higher-quality, sustainable growth. Amid ongoing global geopolitical tensions, China offers a degree of certainty in an otherwise uncertain environment. This is a distinctive advantage for the Chinese market. Relative certainty is further supported by improving earnings revisions compared with other emerging markets, attractive valuations, and structurally enhanced market liquidity. With a heritage spanning more than 220 years, Pictet is guided by a forward-looking vision. Our Ambition 2030 sets out our strategic priorities and expectations. China’s vision resonates with Pictet’s own growth trajectory.
JANSSENS: China’s 2026 growth target of 4.5-5 percent reflects a pragmatic commitment to quality-driven development that aligns perfectly with Merck’s strategic priorities across healthcare, life science and electronics. As a German company with over 355 years of history, we take a long-term view of market development. The proactive fiscal stance — particularly investments in healthcare infrastructure, biomanufacturing capabilities and semiconductor industry development — provides the policy certainty we need for long-term capital allocation decisions. In an era of global volatility, China’s macroeconomic stability functions as a strategic anchor in our worldwide portfolio. Over the past decade, we’ve invested nearly 7 billion yuan in China, and the current policy framework validates our continued commitment.
ZHANG: The Chinese economy has proved resilient against global headwinds over the past years. I am confident the momentum will continue into 2026, underpinned by the government’s proactive, pragmatic, forward-looking policies and actions. Notably, fostering new growth drivers remains a top national priority. Biomedicine, a sector central to Lundbeck’s operations, is positioned as one of the emerging pillar industries in the recent Government Work Report. The strategic focus is expected to inject new impetus into the industry and present growth potential for global pharmaceutical companies including Lundbeck.
Q2 In 2025, China’s exports rose 6.1 percent, newly established foreign-invested enterprises increased by 19.1 percent, and research and development intensity reached 2.8 percent of GDP. Against the backdrop of global supply chain reconfiguration, is China’s role in your global strategy expanding? How do you evaluate China’s integrated advantages — manufacturing depth, innovation capacity, infrastructure and market scale — in supporting your production networks and supply resilience? Does China function primarily as a market, a production base, an innovation hub, or increasingly all three within your corporate architecture?
HU: China is a key market for UBS and we continue to invest strategically. We are encouraged to see that Chinese companies are increasingly at the forefront of innovation and industry transformation, bringing new technologies, products and investment opportunities to international markets. With more than 36 years of local presence and a global network, we see a significant opportunity to support the growth of Chinese corporates and innovation with our unique strengths in connectivity — bringing China to the world and the world to China. As the first institution to qualify as a qualified foreign institutional investor, we have long played a pioneering role in bringing international capital to the China market. We also support Chinese companies in accessing global investors and capital markets.
WATKINS: We have been investing in China for global investors for over two decades. Our long-term perspective enables us to identify opportunities arising from the country’s ongoing structural transformation. Last year, Chinese equities delivered robust performance, driven by breakthroughs in AI that signaled a new era of technological advancement. With returns that are relatively uncorrelated with other global markets, and sustained resilience amid market volatility year to date, international investors have shown increased interest in Chinese equities. Increased market participation and stronger trading activity are expected to provide further support. As a long-term investor, we focus on three key mega-trends: environmental, technological and societal change.
JANSSENS: China has fundamentally transformed within Merck’s global architecture from primarily a market into simultaneously functioning as a critical production base, innovation hub and strategic collaborator. As a German science and technology company headquartered in Darmstadt, we value long-term partnerships and deep local integration. The 19.1 percent rise in newly established foreign enterprises signals an investment climate rewarding long-term commitment, something we’ve experienced through expanded partnerships across this country. With nearly 4,500 employees across 21 legal entities, China’s role for Merck isn’t simply expanding: it’s transforming from localization to co-innovation across technology frontiers.
ZHANG: As Lundbeck’s second-largest market globally, China is not only a commercial hub, but also a strategic pillar within our global footprint in neuroscience, playing an increasingly multidimensional role across market growth and development participation. As a focused innovator in neuroscience, addressing unmet needs remains at our core. We are encouraged by China’s continued progress in advancing innovation and are committed to deepening collaboration with local partners, fostering biotech partnerships, leveraging AI technologies and further improving clinical development efficiency.
Q3 China is advancing the unified national market, with an urbanization rate of 67.9 percent and total retail sales surpassing 50 trillion yuan. As domestic demand expands, what structural opportunities does this vast, increasingly integrated market present for your portfolio, distribution channels and localization strategy? Does deeper market unification reduce operational fragmentation and compliance costs? How do you position your brand and product mix to capture demand from both top-tier cities and fast-growing lower-tier markets?
HU: A “unified national market” helps reduce market fragmentation, improve resource allocation and rectify involution-style competition. Over time, this should boost corporate vitality, support the emergence of more national champions with global competitiveness, and create stronger foundations for economic growth and capital market development. This is key for global players to increase their interest in investing in China. We are already seeing signs of this momentum. International investors’ interest in China rebounded in 2025, as Chinese assets gradually evolved from a “portfolio option” into a “strategic must”. As a pioneer in northbound trading of the Stock Connect, UBS achieved record China trading volumes in 2025, reflecting renewed global engagement with the market.
WATKINS: China’s unified national market is designed to establish a standardized and efficient domestic system, enhancing economic efficiency and enabling long-term investors to access the country’s growth potential as it advances toward high-quality, innovation-driven development. On the consumption front, recent policy initiatives have prioritized domestic demand, introducing reforms in the pension system, healthcare, minimum wages and social security. If implemented effectively, these measures are expected to support consumer spending and encourage the expansion of service-oriented consumption. We see attractive opportunities in urbanization-driven infrastructure and in the evolution of consumption patterns, with consumers increasingly seeking healthier lifestyles and placing greater value on experience-led and emotion-driven purchases.
JANSSENS: The unified national market initiative represents a transformational opportunity for Merck to scale innovation more efficiently across all business sectors. We see three major opportunities. First, rising urbanization and healthcare spending in lower-tier cities create demand for chronic disease therapies and fertility treatments where Merck has leadership, while expanding laboratory infrastructure requiring our life science reagents. Second, unified technical standards and procurement systems allow us to optimize our commercial footprint in both B2B and B2C sectors. Third, expanding consumer demand for premium smartphones, tablets and wearable devices drives demand for our optronics materials.
ZHANG: China’s advancing unified national market and urbanization expand the patient base in brain diseases and improve nationwide access. Greater integration enhances distribution efficiency, regulatory consistency and supply coordination, reducing fragmentation and compliance complexity. For mature brands, Lundbeck collaborates with local partners to expand into lower-tier markets while leveraging leading e-commerce platforms to strengthen omnichannel access to make our treatments accessible to more patients. At Lundbeck, we are dedicated to making a meaningful difference — one life at a time. We filed for marketing authorization of a special preventive therapy in November. Inclusion on the national reimbursement drug list after approval would be critical to enable nationwide access, improve efficiency and benefit patients across city tiers.
Q4 China’s trade-in program generated over 2.6 trillion yuan in sales in 2025, alongside the “Shopping in China” and “Export to China” initiatives. China’s exports grew 6.1 percent year-on-year. How is your company aligning its China strategy to capture both domestic consumption upgrades and export-oriented opportunities? Do you see China increasingly as a global production and innovation base serving international markets? How are you balancing local demand expansion with China’s role in your global export ecosystem?
HU: We are encouraged by the Government Work Report’s commitment to further expanding high-standard opening-up, deepening reform of the institutional framework for promoting foreign investment and ensuring national treatment for foreign-funded enterprises. This not only sends a positive signal of continued efforts to improve the business environment, but also helps further reduce institutional transaction costs and strengthen foreign investors’ confidence and stability in long-term participation in China’s market. UBS has long supported and benefited from the country’s continuous opening-up policies.
WATKINS: We have long highlighted that China is indispensable to the global energy transition. As the world’s largest producer of renewable energy, particularly in solar and wind, China has demonstrated a strong commitment to environmental policy and innovation. As AI applications expand, demand for energy-efficient solutions is rising, especially in data centers, which are projected to account for a significant share of future power consumption. This dynamic creates compelling opportunities in areas such as semiconductors, green buildings, efficient manufacturing and enabling infrastructure, including power grids and green transportation. With over 30 years of experience in global thematic equity investing, we seek to capture long-term value in China’s clean energy transition and broader environmental themes for investors.
JANSSENS: Merck’s China strategy embodies a dual mandate of serving domestic consumption and industrial upgrades while leveraging China as an innovation and manufacturing platform for global markets. As a German company with operations in 65 countries, we view China not just as a local market, but as an integral part of our global value creation network. The consumption momentum aligns with multiple growth drivers: healthcare consumerization through high-quality therapies, laboratory modernization as Chinese biotech companies scale up requiring advanced reagents, and consumer electronics evolution demanding cutting-edge optronics materials for OLED screens. The “Export to China” concept resonates uniquely in technology sectors: it’s about bidirectional innovation flow, inviting global breakthroughs into China faster while exporting China-developed solutions worldwide.
ZHANG: China has advanced consumption upgrades and strengthened its role as a major demand engine. In healthcare, patients are increasingly seeking high-quality treatment solutions. Lundbeck remains focused on brain health across the life cycle, accelerating the development of innovative therapies while expanding access to our established portfolio to meet the growing demand for high-quality healthcare solutions. Rising public health awareness and policy support create sustained demand for advanced neuroscience treatments. Our preventive therapy for chronic migraine and investigational treatment for developmental and epileptic encephalopathies illustrate how we respond to unmet needs while reinforcing our presence in the world’s second-largest pharmaceutical market.
Q5 China last year reduced energy intensity by 5.1 percent, raised the nonfossil energy share to 21.7 percent, and expanded new-type energy storage capacity beyond 130 gigawatts. Artificial intelligence and advanced technologies remain at the forefront globally. Where do you see the strongest partnership potential in China’s green transition and AI-driven industrial upgrading? Are you expanding investment in renewables, digitalization, smart manufacturing, or carbon management solutions? How central is China to your global sustainability roadmap and next-generation technology deployment?
HU: From the rapid evolution of AI to the global rise of sectors such as electric vehicles and renewable energy, Chinese companies are increasingly demonstrating strong technological leadership. Scaling these innovations requires efficient capital allocation in both the local and global financial markets, which creates significant opportunities for global financial institutions like UBS. AI and innovation also play a key role in delivering UBS’s own growth strategy. Globally, UBS has more than 380 live AI-use cases, and employees are equipped with AI productivity tools. Another key contributor is UBS Business Solutions (China), one of our three largest global service centers. It develops advanced AI-enabled technology solutions for UBS globally, including quantitative modeling, algorithmic trading, big data analytics, and cloud engineering. It also collaborates with leading Chinese universities to help cultivate local fintech and AI talent.
JANSSENS: China’s green transition is accelerating, and we see some of the strongest partnership potential where decarbonization and industrial competitiveness move together, especially in renewable electricity adoption, smart manufacturing and sustainable innovation across value chains. At Merck, our sustainability strategy is global, and China is an integral part of how we deliver it locally. As a German company with ambitious science-based climate targets, we are committed to achieving climate neutrality by 2040. In China, we are advancing a pragmatic mix of actions: scaling renewable power and on-site efficiency, accelerating digitalization and smart manufacturing, and expanding sustainable product innovation that helps customers reduce carbon footprint without compromising performance. Across our China footprint, we have invested in green power procurement; through partnerships with Envision and China Resources, 80 percent of our purchased electricity in China now comes from renewable sources.
ZHANG: At Lundbeck, corporate value lies in both business performance and sustainable impact. China is an indispensable part of our global sustainability roadmap. Beyond operational decarbonization and efficiency improvements, we contribute through community-based initiatives such as the “Mental Health Oasis” program in Linquan, Anhui province, integrating mental health support for children and adolescents into rural vitalization efforts. As China advances its green transition, we see partnership potential in energy efficiency, low-carbon operations, and sustainable supply chain practices, aligning local implementation with our global sustainability targets and governance framework. In terms of technology, AI is becoming central to next-generation drug discovery, as well as patient education and disease management. Lundbeck recently appointed a chief AI officer, reflecting the critical role AI will play in transforming how the company operates, innovates and scales its impact for patients.